344 citations · 885 across the 35 of their papers we have counts for
17 papers · 1 filter
Calculation of Epidemic First Passage and Peak Time Probability Distributions
Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall +1
Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting. In many cases, such information is essential for planning increased hosp…
The role of regular asymptomatic testing in reducing the impact of a COVID-19 wave
Miguel E. P. Silva, Martyn Fyles, Li Pi +4
Testing for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is an important intervention in reducing onwards transmission of COVID-19, particularly when combined with the isolation and contact-tracing o…
A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic
Joe Hilton, Heather Riley, Lorenzo Pellis +9
The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models wh…
EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England
Christopher E. Overton, Lorenzo Pellis, Helena B. Stage +9
The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on the national healthcare system in England. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capac…
Total Effect Analysis of Vaccination on Household Transmission in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey
Thomas House, Lorenzo Pellis, Emma Pritchard +2
We investigate the distribution of numbers of secondary cases in households in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey (ONS CIS), stratified by timing of vacci…
Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example
Christopher E. Overton, Helena B. Stage, Shazaad Ahmad +16
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and desig…