3 papers
stat.AP2026
Multidata Causal Discovery for Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecasting
Saranya Ganesh S, Frederick Iat-Hin Tam, Milton S. Gomez +5
Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional meth…
physics.ao-ph2025
Center-fixing of tropical cyclones using uncertainty-aware deep learning applied to high-temporal-resolution geostationary satellite imagery
Ryan Lagerquist, Galina Chirokova, Robert DeMaria +2
Determining the location of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface circulation center -- "center-fixing" -- is a critical first step in the TC-forecasting process, affecting current/fut…
physics.ao-ph2025
Predicting Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using a Probabilistic Neural Network
M. A. Fernandez, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Randal J. Barnes +4
A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves a…