191 citations · 617 across the 43 of their papers we have counts for
45 papers
Does Calibration Pick the Right Model? Likelihood Evidence from Income Risk
Jiuyi Cheng, Alexis Akira Toda
Quantitative macroeconomics typically disciplines models by matching selected moments. We show how finite-state hidden Markov approximations make likelihood estimation and model se…
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Nonergodicity, and Wealth Inequality: A Comment
Alexis Akira Toda
Bouchaud and Farmer (2023) argue that self-fulfilling beliefs generate a realistic wealth distribution. Their reported Gini coefficient, quantiles, and Pareto exponent are computed…
Conditional Impatience and Concavity of Consumption Functions
Alexis Akira Toda
Concave consumption functions imply a marginal propensity to consume that falls with wealth. I characterize the utility functions that guarantee this property in finite-horizon opt…
Can AI Refute Economic Theory? Evidence from Beyond the Knowledge Cutoff
Alexis Akira Toda
Can artificial intelligence (AI) refute economic theory? I document experiments in which I asked several AI models (Gemini, Refine, Claude, and ChatGPT) to check the correctness of…
A Theory of Saving under Risk Preference Dynamics
Qingyin Ma, Xinxi Song, Alexis Akira Toda
Empirical evidence shows that wealthy households have substantially higher saving rates and markedly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC) than other groups. Existing theory c…
Land and Infinite Debt Rollover
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
Many analyses of infinite debt rollover omit productive land, whereas prior work argues that land precludes rollover. We show that when land's income share remains bounded away fro…
Wealth Preferences and the Upper Tail of Consumption
Qingyin Ma, Alexis Akira Toda
We develop a theory of optimal saving when wealth enters utility. Relative curvatures of consumption and wealth utility, and , govern the upper-tail behavior. When , we…
General-Purpose Technologies and Stock Market Bubbles
Tomohiro Hirano, Keiichi Kishi, Alexis Akira Toda
We develop a macro-finance model linking stock price bubbles to a general-purpose technology (GPT), such as information technology and artificial intelligence. Knowledge spillovers…
Rational Bubbles Attached to Real Assets
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
A rational bubble is a situation in which the asset price exceeds its fundamental value defined by the present discounted value of dividends in a rational equilibrium model. We dis…
Rational Bubbles: A Clarification
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
"Rational bubble", as introduced by the famous paper on money by Samuelson (1958), means speculation backed by nothing. The large subsequent rational bubble literature has identifi…
On Equilibrium Determinacy in Overlapping Generations Models with Money
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
This paper provides a detailed analysis of the local determinacy of monetary and non-monetary steady states in Tirole (1985)'s classical two-period overlapping generations model wi…
Recent Advances on Uniqueness of Competitive Equilibrium
Alexis Akira Toda, Kieran James Walsh
This article reviews the recent advances in the uniqueness and multiplicity of competitive equilibria in models arising in mathematical economics, finance, macroeconomics, and trad…
Bubble Economics
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
This article provides a self-contained overview of the theory of rational asset price bubbles. We cover topics from basic definitions, properties, and classical results to frontier…
Unbalanced Growth and Land Overvaluation
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
Historical trends suggest the decline in importance of land as a production factor but its continued importance as a store of value. Using an overlapping generations model with lan…
'Ergodicity Economics' is Pseudoscience
Alexis Akira Toda
In a series of papers, Ole Peters and his collaborators claim that the 'conceptual basis of mainstream economic theory' is 'flawed' and that the approach they call 'ergodicity econ…
Bubble Necessity Theorem
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: t…
Housing Bubbles with Phase Transitions
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
We analyze how equilibrium housing prices are determined in the process of economic development within an overlapping generations model with perfect housing and rental markets. We…
Equilibrium Selection in Pure Bubble Models by Dividend Injection
Tomohiro Hirano, Alexis Akira Toda
Rational ``pure bubble'' models admit multiple (often a continuum of) equilibria, making predictions and policy analysis fragile. We show that if the fundamental equilibrium featur…
Leverage, Endogenous Unbalanced Growth, and Asset Price Bubbles
Tomohiro Hirano, Ryo Jinnai, Alexis Akira Toda
We develop a macro-finance model in which leverage creates a positive feedback loop between capital investment and land prices. When leverage is below a threshold, land prices equa…
Incentivizing Hidden Types in Secretary Problem
Longjian Li, Alexis Akira Toda
We study a game between job applicants who incur a cost (relative to the job value) to reveal their type during interviews and an administrator who seeks to maximize the pr…
Capital and Labor Income Pareto Exponents in the United States, 1916-2019
Ji Hyung Lee, Yuya Sasaki, Alexis Akira Toda +1
Accurately estimating income Pareto exponents is challenging due to limitations in data availability and the applicability of statistical methods. Using tabulated summaries of inco…
Tuning Parameter-Free Nonparametric Density Estimation from Tabulated Summary Data
Ji Hyung Lee, Yuya Sasaki, Alexis Akira Toda +1
Administrative data are often easier to access as tabulated summaries than in the original format due to confidentiality concerns. Motivated by this practical feature, we propose a…
Robust Comparative Statics for the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution
Joel P. Flynn, Lawrence D. W. Schmidt, Alexis Akira Toda
We study a general class of consumption-savings problems with recursive preferences. We characterize the sign of the consumption response to arbitrary shocks in terms of the produc…
Fixed-k Tail Regression: New Evidence on Tax and Wealth Inequality from Forbes 400
Ji Hyung Lee, Yuya Sasaki, Alexis Akira Toda +1
We develop a novel fixed-k tail regression method that accommodates the unique feature in the Forbes 400 data that observations are truncated from below at the 400th largest order…