3 papers
stat.AP2026
Probabilistic Deep Learning for Drought Forecasting: Role of Internal Climate Variability
Henri Funk, Cornelia Gruber, Göran Kauermann +2
Predicting drought risk is essential for anticipating impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and climate adaptation planning. Yet drought forecasts remain uncertain b…
stat.AP2026
Capturing Aleatoric Uncertainty in Climate Models
Cornelia Gruber, Henri Funk, Magdalena Mittermeier +2
Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making…
physics.ao-ph2026
Omega-blocks with spatially compounding extremes over Europe are highly sensitive to remote atmospheric drivers
Magdalena Mittermeier, Christian M. Grams, Urs Beyerle +5
Omega-blocks can trigger spatially compounding heat-precipitation extremes with severe societal impacts, as seen in September 2023 when a heatwave over France coincided with devast…