Fundamental Bound on Epidemic Overshoot in the SIR Model

Maximilian Nguyen, Ari Freedman, Sinan Ozbay +1

We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack-McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984... occurs at $R_0^{\ast }$ = 2.151... . In consideri…