4 papers
TS-Arena -- A Live Forecast Pre-Registration Platform
Marcel Meyer, Sascha Kaltenpoth, Henrik Albers +3
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are transforming the field of forecasting. However, evaluating them on historical data is increasingly difficult due to the risks of train-tes…
Rethinking Evaluation in the Era of Time Series Foundation Models: (Un)known Information Leakage Challenges
Marcel Meyer, Sascha Kaltenpoth, Kevin Zalipski +1
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) represent a new paradigm for time-series forecasting, promising zero-shot predictions without the need for task-specific training or fine-tuni…
Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models for Short-Term Household Electricity Load Forecasting
Marcel Meyer, David Zapata, Sascha Kaltenpoth +1
Accurate household electricity short-term load forecasting (STLF) is key to future and sustainable energy systems. While various studies have analyzed statistical, machine learning…
Bridging the Gap Between Data-Driven And Theory-Driven Modelling - Leveraging Causal Machine Learning for Integrative Modelling of Dynamical Systems
David Zapata Gonzalez, Marcel Meyer, Oliver Mueller
Classical machine learning techniques often struggle with overfitting and unreliable predictions when exposed to novel conditions. Introducing causality into the modelling process…