8 papers
The Rise and Possible Decline of Societal Complexity
Theodore Modis
Societal complexity may be at a historical peak. Distinct from entropy, complexity tends to rise as systems move away from order, crest at an intermediate state, and decline as ent…
The Normal, the Natural, and the Harmonic
Theodore Modis
Use is made of rigorous definitions for the terms normal, natural, and harmonic to reveal a number of unfamiliar aspects about them. The Gaussian distribution is not sufficient to…
Complexity in the Wake of Artificial Intelligence
Theodore Modis
This study aims to evaluate quantitatively, albeit in arbitrary units, the evolution of complexity of the human system since the domestication of fire. This is made possible by stu…
A Hard-Science Approach to Kondratieff's Economic Cycle
Theodore Modis
In an effort to evidence the Kondratieff cycle more scientifically than the way economists do, physical variables are studied rather than monetary indicators. Previously published…
Forecasting Energy Needs with Logistics
Theodore Modis
The logistic function is used to forecast energy consumed worldwide and oil production in the U.S. The logistic substitution model is used to describe the energy mix since 1965 pre…
Forecasting the Mix of World Energy Needs by mid-21st Century
Theodore Modis
The logistic function is used to forecast energy consumed worldwide. The logistic substitution model is used to describe the energy mix since 1965 presenting a picture significantl…