3 papers
physics.ao-ph2026
Recent increase in near-perpendicular tropical cyclone landfall fraction projected to emerge under high-emissions warming
Cong Gao, Ning Lin
Tropical cyclone landfall angle strongly modulates storm-surge potential, but how it changes with climate remains unknown. From 1980 to 2024, the global fraction of near-perpendicu…
physics.ao-ph2026
A common warming-dependent decline emerges from divergent projections of tropical cyclone frequency
Cong Gao, Ning Lin
How global tropical cyclone frequency will respond to climate warming remains uncertain, with projections spanning both increases and decreases. Here we use an environment-dependen…
physics.ao-ph2026
PepC-Global: A Basin-Tuned Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Model with Enhanced Out-of-Sample Skill and Climate-Sensitive Over-Land Decay
Cong Gao, Ning Lin
We present PepC-Global, a global version of the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) framework that uniquely implements basin-wise tuning within a…