7 papers
Estimating the Resilience of Non-Stationary Systems
Taylor Smith, Andreas Morr, Christof Schötz +1
A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- ar…
Statistical warning indicators for abrupt transitions in dynamical systems with slow periodic forcing
Florian Suerhoff, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany +2
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bi…
Targeted Calibration to Adjust Stability Biases in Complex Dynamical System Models
Daniel Pals, Sebastian Bathiany, Richard Wood +2
Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically proh…
Decadal sink-source shifts of forest aboveground carbon since 1988
Zhen Qian, Sebastian Bathiany, Teng Liu +3
Forest ecosystems are vital to the global carbon cycle, yet their long-term aboveground carbon (AGC) dynamics remain uncertain. Here, we integrate multi-source satellite observatio…
Anticipating AMOC transitions via deep learning
Wenjie Zhang, Yu Huang, Sebastian Bathiany +4
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this s…
The influence of data gaps and outliers on resilience indicators
Teng Liu, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany +5
The resilience, or stability, of major Earth system components is increasingly threatened by anthropogenic pressures, demanding reliable early warning signals for abrupt and irreve…