3 papers
physics.geo-ph2026
Exceedance Probabilities for Large Earthquakes From DIY Local Earthquake Ensemble Nowcasting and Forecasting
John B Rundle, Ian Baughman, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a def…
physics.geo-ph2026
Calendar Time Local Earthquake Forecasts from Earthquake Nowcasts: A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Ensemble Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughmann, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS <…
physics.geo-ph2025
From Local Earthquake Nowcasting to Natural Time Forecasting: A Simple Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughman, Andrea Donnellan +2
Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "coun…