5 papers
Exceedance Probabilities for Large Earthquakes From DIY Local Earthquake Ensemble Nowcasting and Forecasting
John B Rundle, Ian Baughman, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a def…
Calendar Time Local Earthquake Forecasts from Earthquake Nowcasts: A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Ensemble Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughmann, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS <…
Simulating Subterranean Fluid Injection through Iteration on the VirtualQuake Model
Spence Norwood, John Rundle
This work extends the VirtualQuake earthquake simulation framework to incorporate the effects of fluid injection on fault stability and induced seismicity. Reworking VirtualQuake i…
Seismic quiescence and activation prior to the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka, Russia earthquake
K. Z. Nanjo, J. Yazbeck, I. T. Baughman +1
The 29 July 2025 Kamchatka earthquake, of magnitude M8.8 in the Kamchatka-Kuril subduction system, provides a unique opportunity to investigate the preparatory processes of a great…
From Local Earthquake Nowcasting to Natural Time Forecasting: A Simple Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughman, Andrea Donnellan +2
Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "coun…