135 citations · 226 across the 7 of their papers we have counts for
7 papers
Time Series based Ensemble Model Output Statistics for Temperature Forecasts Postprocessing
David Jobst, Annette Möller, Jürgen Groß
Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce an ensemble of forecasts. Despite of large improvements over the last few decades, the…
Effect Size Estimation in Linear Mixed Models
Jürgen Groß, Annette Möller
In this note, we reconsider Cohen's effect size measure under linear mixed models and demonstrate its application by employing an artificially generated data set. It is shown…
Probabilistic temperature forecasting based on an ensemble AR modification
Annette Möller, Jürgen Groß
To address the uncertainty in outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensembles of forecasts are used. To obtain such an ensemble of forecasts the NWP model is run mu…
Bivariate ensemble model output statistics approach for joint forecasting of wind speed and temperature
Sándor Baran, Annette Möller
Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion err…
Spatially adaptive, Bayesian estimation for probabilistic temperature forecasts
Annette Möller, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Alex Lenkoski +1
Uncertainty in the prediction of future weather is commonly assessed through the use of forecast ensembles that employ a numerical weather prediction model in distinct variants. St…
Joint probabilistic forecasting of wind speed and temperature using Bayesian model averaging
Sándor Baran, Annette Möller
Ensembles of forecasts are typically employed to account for the forecast uncertainties inherent in predictions of future weather states. However, biases and dispersion errors ofte…
Multivariate probabilistic forecasting using Bayesian model averaging and copulas
Annette Möller, Alex Lenkoski, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir
We propose a method for post-processing an ensemble of multivariate forecasts in order to obtain a joint predictive distribution of weather. Our method utilizes existing univariate…