5 papers
Semi-Markov Models with Particle-Based Bayesian Inference for Epidemics
Patrick Aschermayr, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos, Nikolaos Demiris
The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by multiple waves of transmission driven by interventions and emerging variants, challenging epidemic models that assume gradually evol…
Exchangeable Gaussian Processes with application to epidemics
Lampros Bouranis, Petros Barmpounakis, Nikolaos Demiris +1
We develop a Bayesian non-parametric framework based on multi-task Gaussian processes, appropriate for temporal shrinkage. We focus on a particular class of dynamic hierarchical mo…
Bayesian analysis of diffusion-driven multi-type epidemic models with application to COVID-19
Lampros Bouranis, Nikolaos Demiris, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos +1
We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of t…
Stable Survival Extrapolation via Transfer Learning
Anastasios Apsemidis, Nikolaos Demiris
The mean survival is the key ingredient of the decision process in several applications, notably in health economic evaluations. It is defined as the area under the complete surviv…
Bayesian Evidence Synthesis for Modeling SARS-CoV-2 Transmission
Anastasios Apsemidis, Nikolaos Demiris
The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-repo…