3 papers
stat.AP2026
Semi-Markov Models with Particle-Based Bayesian Inference for Epidemics
Patrick Aschermayr, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos, Nikolaos Demiris
The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by multiple waves of transmission driven by interventions and emerging variants, challenging epidemic models that assume gradually evol…
stat.ME2025
Exchangeable Gaussian Processes with application to epidemics
Lampros Bouranis, Petros Barmpounakis, Nikolaos Demiris +1
We develop a Bayesian non-parametric framework based on multi-task Gaussian processes, appropriate for temporal shrinkage. We focus on a particular class of dynamic hierarchical mo…
stat.CO2025
Bayesian analysis of diffusion-driven multi-type epidemic models with application to COVID-19
Lampros Bouranis, Nikolaos Demiris, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos +1
We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of t…