99 citations · 160 across the 7 of their papers we have counts for
7 papers
Shadowing the rotating annulus. Part II: Gradient descent in the perfect model scenario
Roland M. B. Young, Roman Binter, Falk Niehörster +2
Shadowing trajectories are model trajectories consistent with a sequence of observations of a system, given a distribution of observational noise. The existence of such trajectorie…
On the Design and use of Ensembles of Multi-model Simulations for Forecasting
Sarah Higgins, Hailiang Du, Leonard A. Smith
Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. H…
Multi-model Cross Pollination in Time
Hailiang Du, Leonard A. Smith
Predictive skill of complex models is often not uniform in model-state space; in weather forecasting models, for example, the skill of the model can be greater in populated regions…
Rising Above Chaotic Likelihoods
Hailiang Du, Leonard A. Smith
Berliner (Likelihood and Bayesian prediction for chaotic systems, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1991) identified a number of difficulties in using the likelihood function within the Bayesian…
Parameter Estimation Through Ignorance
Hailiang Du, Leonard A. Smith
Dynamical modelling lies at the heart of our understanding of physical systems. Its role in science is deeper than mere operational forecasting, in that it allows us to evaluate th…
Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy
Patrick E. McSharry, Leonard A. Smith
Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of…