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stat.ME2026
Estimating the Conditional Forecast-Revision Scale in Sequential Models: Local-Smoothing Limits, Matched Models, and Cost--Accuracy Trade-offs
Hui-Mean Foo, Yuan-chin Ivan Chang
The \emph{conditional forecast-revision scale} $\It=\{\Var(\E[X_{t+1}\mid\F_t]\mid\F_{t-1})\}^{1/2}$ measures the history-specific size of the forecast update induced by observing…
stat.ME2026
Optimal Stopping in Sequential Clinical Prediction
Hui-Mean Foo, Yuan-chin Ivan Chang
Most clinical prediction studies are developed from retrospective cohorts and reported as if all patient information were observed at once. In practice, clinicians face a more cons…