6 papers
Learning a Stochastic Differential Equation Model of Tropical Cyclone Intensification from Reanalysis and Observational Data
Kenneth Gee, Sai Ravela
Tropical cyclones are among the most consequential weather hazards, yet estimates of their risk are limited by the relatively short historical record. To extend these records, rese…
Ensemble-Conditional Gaussian Processes (Ens-CGP): Representation, Geometry, and Inference
Sai Ravela, Jae Deok Kim, Kenneth Gee +4
We formulate Ensemble-Conditional Gaussian Processes (Ens-CGP), a finite-dimensional synthesis that centers ensemble-based inference on the conditional Gaussian law. Conditional Ga…
LASSE: Learning Active Sampling for Storm Tide Extremes in Non-Stationary Climate Regimes
Grace Jiang, Jiangchao Qiu, Sai Ravela
Identifying tropical cyclones that generate destructive storm tides for risk assessment, such as from large downscaled storm catalogs for climate studies, is often intractable beca…
Bangladesh's Amplified Coastal Storm Tide Hazard from Tropical Cyclones and Rising Sea Levels in a Warming Climate
Jiangchao Qiu, Sai Ravela, Kerry Emanuel
The risk of extreme storm tides to Bangladesh's low-lying and densely populated coastal regions, already vulnerable to tropical cyclones, remains poorly quantified under a warming…
Rapid Climate Model Downscaling to Assess Risk of Extreme Rainfall in Bangladesh in a Warming Climate
Anamitra Saha, Sai Ravela
As climate change drives an increase in global extremes, it is critical for Bangladesh, a nation highly vulnerable to these impacts, to assess future risks for effective adaptation…
Rapid Statistical-Physical Adversarial Downscaling Reveals Bangladesh's Rising Rainfall Risk in a Warming Climate
Anamitra Saha, Sai Ravela
In Bangladesh, a nation vulnerable to climate change, accurately quantifying the risk of extreme weather events is crucial for planning effective adaptation and mitigation strategi…