12 citations · 12 across the 2 of their papers we have counts for
2 papers
stat.AP2024
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi +37
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated…
stat.AP2020★ 12 cited
The Role of Governmental Weapons Procurements in Forecasting Monthly Fatalities in Intrastate Conflicts: A Semiparametric Hierarchical Hurdle Model
Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner +1
Accurate and interpretable forecasting models predicting spatially and temporally fine-grained changes in the numbers of intrastate conflict casualties are of crucial importance fo…