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physics.ao-ph2026
Forecasting carbon-risk hotspots ahead of the extreme 2026 El Niño
Xiaomeng Du, Runda Jiang, Philippe Ciais +14
A potentially super El Niño is forecasted in 2026, raising the need to anticipate land carbon-cycle risks before its impacts unfold. We develop a prospective early-warning framewor…
physics.ao-ph2026
Low latency global carbon budget reveals strong land sink recovery in 2025
Philippe Ciais, Piyu Ke, Xiangjun Tian +32
The atmospheric CO2 growth rate fell sharply in 2025, from a record 3.76 0.09 ppm yr-1 in 2024 to 2.06 0.09 ppm yr-1 (NOAA marine boundary layer observations), below th…
physics.ao-ph2024★ 5 cited
Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023
Piyu Ke, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch +13
In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel C…