4 papers
Adaptive Liquidity in Prediction Markets via Online Learning
Enrique Nueve, Bao Nguyen, Rafael Frongillo +1
Prediction markets rely on liquidity to convert trades into informative prices, yet existing mechanisms fix liquidity ex ante. This restriction enforces a static trade-off between…
Robust forecast aggregation via additional queries
Rafael Frongillo, Mary Monroe, Eric Neyman +1
We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying inform…
Efficiency of Constant Log Utility Market Makers
Maneesha Papireddygari, Xintong Wang, Bo Waggoner +1
Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are used to provide liquidity for combinatorial prediction markets that would otherwise be too thinly traded. They offer both buy and sell prices for…
Public Projects with Preferences and Predictions
Mary Monroe, Bo Waggoner
When making a decision as a group, there are two primary paradigms: aggregating preferences (e.g. voting, mechanism design) and aggregating information (e.g. discussion, consulting…