4 papers
Adaptive Liquidity in Prediction Markets via Online Learning
Enrique Nueve, Bao Nguyen, Rafael Frongillo +1
Prediction markets rely on liquidity to convert trades into informative prices, yet existing mechanisms fix liquidity ex ante. This restriction enforces a static trade-off between…
Trading off Consistency and Dimensionality of Convex Surrogates for the Mode
Enrique Nueve, Bo Waggoner, Dhamma Kimpara +1
In multiclass classification over outcomes, the outcomes must be embedded into the reals with dimension at least in order to design a consistent surrogate loss that leads…
Structured Prediction with Abstention via the Lovász Hinge
Jessie Finocchiaro, Rafael Frongillo, Enrique Nueve
The Lovász hinge is a convex loss function proposed for binary structured classification, in which k related binary predictions jointly evaluated by a submodular function. Despite…
Smooth Quadratic Prediction Markets
Enrique Nueve, Bo Waggoner
When agents trade in a Duality-based Cost Function prediction market, they collectively implement the learning algorithm Follow-The-Regularized-Leader. We ask whether other learnin…