2 citations · 4 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers
Integrating Unsupervised and Supervised Learning for the Prediction of Defensive Schemes in American football
Rouven Michels, Robert Bajons, Jan-Ole Fischer
Anticipating defensive coverage schemes is a crucial yet challenging task for offenses in American football. Because defenders' assignments are intentionally disguised before the s…
Predicting Qualification Thresholds in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League under the New League Phase Format
David Winkelmann, Rouven Michels, Christian Deutscher
For the 2024/25 season, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) introduced an incomplete round-robin format in the Champions League and Europa League, replacing the trad…
PEP: a tackle value measuring the prevention of expected points
Robert Bajons, Jan-Ole Koslik, Rouven Michels +1
Traditional assessments of tackling in American Football often only consider the number of tackles made, without adequately accounting for their context and importance for the game…
Modelling handball outcomes using univariate and bivariate approaches
Dimitris Karlis, Rouven Michels, Marius Otting
Handball has received growing interest during the last years, including academic research for many different aspects of the sport. On the other hand modelling the outcome of the ga…
Inference on the state process of periodically inhomogeneous hidden Markov models for animal behavior
Jan-Ole Koslik, Carlina C. Feldmann, Sina Mews +2
Over the last decade, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have become increasingly popular in statistical ecology, where they constitute natural tools for studying animal behavior based on…
Extending the Dixon and Coles model: an application to women's football data
Rouven Michels, Marius Ötting, Dimitris Karlis
The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles (1997) extends the double Poisson model where two independent Poisson distributions model the number of goals scored by each team by moving p…
Nonparametric estimation of multivariate hidden Markov models using tensor-product B-splines
Rouven Michels, Roland Langrock
For multivariate time series driven by underlying states, hidden Markov models (HMMs) constitute a powerful framework which can be flexibly tailored to the situation at hand. Howev…
Bettors' reaction to match dynamics -- Evidence from in-game betting
Rouven Michels, Marius Ötting, Roland Langrock
It is still largely unclear to what extent bettors update their prior assumptions about the strength and form of competing teams considering the dynamics during the match. This is…
The reaction to news in live betting
Marius Ötting, Rouven Michels, Roland Langrock +1
Sports betting markets have grown very rapidly recently, with the total European gambling market worth 98.6 billion euro in 2019. Considering a high-resolution (1 Hz) data set prov…