42 citations · 84 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers
SEISMO: Explanation-Aware, Trajectory-Conditioned LLM Agents for Sample-Efficient Molecular Optimisation
Fabian P. Krüger, Andrea Hunklinger, Adrian Wolny +3
Optimizing molecules to achieve desired properties is a central bottleneck across the chemical sciences, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry, where it underlies the discove…
Simplifying Random Forests' Probabilistic Forecasts
Nils Koster, Fabian Krüger
Since their introduction by Breiman, Random Forests (RFs) have proven to be useful for both classification and regression tasks. The RF prediction of a previously unseen observatio…
Simple Macroeconomic Forecast Distributions for the G7 Economies
Friederike Becker, Fabian Krüger, Melanie Schienle
We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International…
Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions
Johannes Bracher, Lotta Rüter, Fabian Krüger +2
In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting the sign of an outcome variable correctly in addition to its magnitude. For instance, when forecasting arme…
Learning to forecast: The probabilistic time series forecasting challenge
Johannes Bracher, Nils Koster, Fabian Krüger +1
We report on a course project in which students submit weekly probabilistic forecasts of two weather variables and one financial variable. This real-time format allows students to…
Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts
Fabian Krüger, Hendrik Plett
The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting prob…
From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting
Oliver Grothe, Fabian Kächele, Fabian Krüger
Modeling price risks is crucial for economic decision making in energy markets. Besides the risk of a single price, the dependence structure of multiple prices is often relevant. W…
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with scoringRules
Alexander Jordan, Fabian Krüger, Sebastian Lerch
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields including meteorology, hydrology, economics, and demograph…
Forecast dominance testing via sign randomization
Werner Ehm, Fabian Krüger
We propose randomization tests of whether forecast 1 outperforms forecast 2 across a class of scoring functions. This hypothesis is of applied interest: While the prediction contex…
Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output
Fabian Krüger, Sebastian Lerch, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir +1
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct…