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stat.CO2026
Overlap, Not Moments: Finite-Sample Theory for Bridge Sampling
Giorgio Micaletto
Bridge sampling estimates of marginal likelihoods are routinely reported with a delta-method Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE). Existing theory is asymptotic and cannot say whether…
stat.CO2026
From Proxy to Certificate: Two-Sided Ollivier-Ricci Bounds from Balanced Forman Curvature
Giorgio Micaletto, Tebe Nigrelli
Balanced Forman (BF) curvature is used in graph learning as a cheap stand-in for Ollivier-Ricci (OR) curvature, yet it does not lower-bound OR curvature. We show that the BF value…