3 papers
stat.AP2026
Prediction Markets Underperform Simple Baselines For Infectious Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno
Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) allow participants to bet on future events, producing real-time forecasts based on collective judgment. In domains such as elections a…
cs.LG2026
Simulation as Supervision: Mechanistic Pretraining for Scientific Discovery
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno, Christopher Harding +1
Scientific modeling faces a tradeoff between the interpretability of mechanistic theory and the predictive power of machine learning. While existing hybrid approaches have made pro…
cs.AI2026
Mantis: A Foundation Model for Mechanistic Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno, Christopher Harding +3
Infectious disease forecasting in novel outbreaks or low-resource settings is hampered by the need for large disease and covariate data sets, bespoke training, and expert tuning, a…