3 papers
stat.AP2026
A market-calibrated accelerated failure time model for in-play football forecasting
Lawrence Clegg, Zixing Song, John Cartlidge
In-play football forecasting models have struggled to match the accuracy of betting exchange prices, which aggregate information from many market participants. We close this gap by…
cs.LG2025
Capturing Intransitive Dominance in Tennis Forecasting: A Graph Neural Network Approach
Lawrence Clegg, John Cartlidge
Intransitive player dominance, where player A beats B, B beats C, but C beats A, is common in competitive tennis. Yet, there are few known attempts to incorporate it within forecas…
stat.AP2023
Not feeling the buzz: Correction study of mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks
Lawrence Clegg, John Cartlidge
We present a replication and correction of a recent article (Ramirez, P., Reade, J.J., Singleton, C., Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks, Internat…