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stat.ME2026

Fully specified Bayes factors for hypothesis testing and sensitivity analysis in process tracing

Matias López, Jake Bowers, Daniel Gajardo Cooper

In process tracing, researchers ask how strongly their evidence favors their explanation, the working theory, over a rival. Fairfield and Charman (2022) compare the two theories wi…

stat.ME2026

Sequential Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Assumptions: A Framework for Understanding Racial Disparity in Police Use of Force

Thomas Leavitt, Jake Bowers, Luke Miratrix

Inferring racial discrimination in police use of force -- the average causal effect of civilian race on use of force -- requires two assumptions about policing prior to potential u…

stat.ME2026

Randomization Tests for Distributions of Individual Treatment Effects via Combined Rank Statistics

David Kim, Yongchang Su, Jake Bowers +1

What proportion of treated units actually benefited from an experimental intervention? What is the median or the largest individual treatment effect? This paper develops methods fo…

stat.ME2026

Detecting Where Effects Occur by Testing Hypotheses in Order

Jake Bowers, David Kim, Nuole Chen

Experimental evaluations of public policies often randomize a new intervention within many sites or blocks. After an overall statistically significant result is reported, the natur…

stat.ME2023

A p-value for Process Tracing and other N=1 Studies

Matias Lopez, Jake Bowers

We introduce a method for calculating \(p\)-values to test causal hypotheses in qualitative research \emph{a la} process tracing. As in an experiment, our \(p\)-value tells us how…