341 citations · 436 across the 3 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers
Escalation dynamics and the severity of wars
Aaron Clauset, Barbara F. Walter, Lars-Erik Cederman +1
Although very large wars remain an enduring threat in global politics, we lack a clear understanding of how some wars become large and costly, while most do not. There are three po…
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi +37
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated…
The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations
Aaron Clauset, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analy…
On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events
Aaron Clauset, Maxwell Young, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
In the spirit of Richardson's original (1948) study of the statistics of deadly conflicts, we study the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks worldwide since 1968. We show th…