4 papers
Evaluating the skill of a geometric early warning for tipping in a rapidly forced nonlinear system
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Sneha Kachhara, Peter Ashwin
The future behavioural fate of a forced nonlinear system can depend sensitively on the forcing profile as well as natural fluctuations within the system. This is especially the cas…
The role of coupling and timescales for interacting tipping elements
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Robbin Bastiaansen, Anna S. von der Heydt +1
Sudden and abrupt changes can occur in a nonlinear system within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point and rapid changes of the system occur in response…
Early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades
Peter Ashwin, Robbin Bastiaansen, Anna S. von der Heydt +1
We investigate how nonlinear behaviour (both of forcing in time and of the system itself) can affect the skill of early warning signals to predict tipping in (directionally) couple…
Quantifying risk of a noise-induced AMOC collapse from northern and tropical Atlantic Ocean variability
R. Chapman, P. Ashwin, J. Baker +1
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a resu…