5 papers
Mixture priors for replication studies
Roberto Macrì-Demartino, Leonardo Egidi, Leonhard Held +1
Replication of scientific studies is important for assessing the credibility of their results. However, there is no consensus on how to quantify the extent to which a replication s…
Leicester's Tale: Another Perspective on the EPL 2015/16 Through Expected Goals (xG) Modelling
Sheikh Badar Ud Din Tahir, Leonardo Egidi, Nicola Torelli
Probabilistic modeling is an effective tool for evaluating team performance and predicting outcomes in sports. However, an important question that hasn't been fully explored is whe…
Bayesian weighted discrete-time dynamic models for association football prediction
Roberto Macrì-Demartino, Leonardo Egidi, Nicola Torelli
In recent years, great emphasis has been placed on the prediction of association football. Due to this, several studies have proposed different types of statistical models to predi…
Eliciting prior information from clinical trials via calibrated Bayes factor
Roberto Macrì Demartino, Leonardo Egidi, Nicola Torelli +1
In the Bayesian framework power prior distributions are increasingly adopted in clinical trials and similar studies to incorporate external and past information, typically to infor…
Alternative ranking measures to predict international football results
Roberto Macrì Demartino, Leonardo Egidi, Nicola Torelli
Over the last few years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes, with particular emphasis placed on this area by the Bayes…