5 papers
Decision-Relevant Information in Partially Observed Production Networks
Shaowen Luo, Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
A production network can remain largely unidentified even when the economic decision it supports is identified. We characterize sufficient measurements for exposure-based decisions…
Partial Identification of Spatial Production Networks
Shaowen Luo, Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Which regional exposure conclusions are identified when public data do not observe buyer-seller links across states? We study this question by treating the missing intermediate-inp…
Political Shocks and Price Discovery in Prediction Markets: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
What do trading and prices each reveal when political news hits a prediction market? We answer using Polymarket's on-chain ledger around three shocks in the 2024 U.S. presidential…
The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Using the complete on-chain settlement ledger, we study Polymarket's 2024 U.S. presidential election markets, focusing on the Trump YES price widely quoted as a forecast of the rac…
Agree to Disagree: Measuring Hidden Dissent in FOMC Meetings
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Using FOMC transcripts and customized deep learning models, we quantify ``hidden dissent'', or disagreement in the FOMC that is unobserved in formal votes. We find hidden dissent t…