activity
20242026
most citedBeyond the Black Box: A Statistical Model for LLM Reasoning and Inference

1 citations · 1 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

6 papers

cs.CL2026

Retrieval Sensitivity to Identity Signals in Queries

Andrew Tang, Nicholas Deas, Kathleen McKeown +1

Dense retrievers decide which documents reach users and the language models that use them, yet they are typically evaluated with neutral queries. We ask whether the identity signal…

cs.LG2026

Bayesian Wind Tunnels for Model Selection

Siddhartha R Dalal, Vishal Misra, Abhay Parekh

Prior work has shown that transformers can perform exact Bayesian filtering within a fixed hypothesis class. Can they also perform Bayesian model selection -- identifying the corre…

cs.LG2025

Geometric Scaling of Bayesian Inference in LLMs

Naman Agarwal, Siddhartha R. Dalal, Vishal Misra

Recent work has shown that small transformers trained in controlled "wind-tunnel'' settings can implement exact Bayesian inference, and that their training dynamics produce a geome…

stat.ML2025

Gradient Dynamics of Attention: How Cross-Entropy Sculpts Bayesian Manifolds

Naman Agarwal, Siddhartha R. Dalal, Vishal Misra

Transformers empirically perform precise probabilistic reasoning in carefully constructed ``Bayesian wind tunnels'' and in large-scale language models, yet the mechanisms by which…

cs.LG2025

The Bayesian Geometry of Transformer Attention

Naman Agarwal, Siddhartha R. Dalal, Vishal Misra

Transformers often appear to perform Bayesian reasoning in context, but verifying this rigorously has been impossible: natural data lack analytic posteriors, and large models confl…

cs.LG2024★ 1 cited

Beyond the Black Box: A Statistical Model for LLM Reasoning and Inference

Siddhartha Dalal, Vishal Misra

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian learning model to explain the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs), focusing on their core optimization metric of next token prediction.…