Memory Scarcity, Open Models, and the Restructuring of the AI Industry, 2026-2030 -- A quantitative scenario analysis of inference economics, training-cost divergence, and infrastructure solvency

Satoshi Matsuoka

We analyze how four forces restructure the AI industry over 2026-2030: the DRAM/HBM price surge, frontier-capable open-weight models (GLM-5.2), rapid inference-efficiency gains (ne…