2 papers
q-fin.GN2026
A Unified Credit Expansion Theory on Housing Cycle: Causal Evidence for Within- and Cross-Metro Patterns in the Prior, Boom, Bust, and Recovery Periods
Bo Li
During the 1999-2019 U.S. housing cycle, three empirical facts present a puzzle: in the boom period, the correlation between income growth and mortgage growth is (1) negative acros…
q-fin.GN2024
Household Leverage Cycle Around the Great Recession
Bo Li
This paper provides the first causal evidence that credit supply expansion caused the 1999-2010 U.S. business cycle mainly through the channel of household leverage (debt-to-income…