3 papers
econ.GN2026
Lucky or Good? Outcome Noise, Effective Sample Size, and the Attribution of Skill
Karl T. Ulrich
When do outcome records carry enough signal to support reliable inferences about skill? When they do not, what should evaluators substitute? The framework answering the first quest…
q-fin.GN2026
Dead Reckoning: Counting Your Customers Who Never Say Goodbye
Karl T. Ulrich
Firms in non-contractual commerce face the challenge of knowing how many customers they actually have because customers can stop buying without ever saying they have left. Buy-Till…
q-fin.GN2026
The Satoshi Overhang: Why the Bear Case is Bounded
Karl T. Ulrich
Renewed attention to the identity of Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator has revived an old worry: that the roughly 1.148 million BTC mined by Satoshi and never moved represent a major…