4 papers
Estimating Epidemic Rate Parameters: Adaptivity, Bias, and Convolution
Jeremy Goldwasser
Metrics like the case-fatality rate and reproduction number are key descriptors of epidemics from the COVID-19 pandemic to the seasonal flu. In retrospect, these quantities enrich…
Fast, Frequentist Estimation of Epidemic Reproduction Numbers
Jeremy Goldwasser, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Alyssa Bilinski
The effective reproduction number is one of the most important indicators of epidemic dynamics. Estimating , typically from case reports or hospitalization counts, poses…
On the Equivalence of Instantaneous and Mechanistic Reproduction Numbers
Jeremy Goldwasser, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Alyssa Bilinski
The effective reproduction number () is widely used to track epidemic dynamics in real time. The standard estimation framework uses "instantaneous ," defined via the rene…
Estimating Time-Varying Epidemic Severity Rates with Adaptive Deconvolution
Jeremy Goldwasser, Addison J. Hu, Alyssa Bilinski +2
Several key metrics in public health convey the probability that a primary event will lead to a more serious secondary event in the future.Several key metrics in public health conv…