3 papers
cs.LG2026
Global tree forecasters collapse at the hierarchical aggregate: a five-panel failure characterization
Md Rezwanul Islam, Wael Mohammed
Global forecasting models pool many series and learn one shared function. Gradient-boosted trees are their most common form. We measure a failure of this design that has not, to ou…
cs.LG2026
Evaluation Choices Decide the Forecasting Leaderboard: Evidence from a Production Marketplace Panel
Md Rezwanul Islam, Wael Mohammed
A forecasting benchmark reports which method won. We show that the answer is set by the evaluator's choices before any model is fitted. We benchmark 24 forecasting methods and one…
stat.AP2026
Seasonal false alarms in customer churn and decline early-warning systems: adjacent-window labels confound seasonality with decline, and a year-over-year correction
Md Rezwanul Islam, Wael Mohammed
Customer decline early-warning systems feed account-manager action lists, and every flagged account consumes intervention capacity. In a deployed business-to-business marketplace s…