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stat.AP2026
Prediction Markets Underperform Simple Baselines For Infectious Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno
Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) allow participants to bet on future events, producing real-time forecasts based on collective judgment. In domains such as elections a…
stat.AP2026
Not All Accuracy Is Equal: Prioritizing Independence in Infectious Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Marisa Eisenberg
Ensemble forecasts have become a cornerstone of large-scale disease response, underpinning decision making at agencies such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CD…