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stat.AP2026
Modeling the Joint Distribution of Box Score Statistics: A Gaussian Copula Approach
Kenny Watts
What is the probability that LeBron James records at least 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists tonight? While an interesting statistical question by itself, the rise of sports bet…
stat.AP2026
A Markov Chain Approach to Modeling Rugby Union
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón
Rugby Union's continuous play, variable-length possessions, and multiple scoring outcomes make it difficult to model with standard approaches. We present a Markov Chain framework t…
stat.AP2026
Dummy RAPM: Representing Low-Minute Players in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) uses stint-level lineup indicators to estimate player contributions to scoring margin. When low-minute player columns are removed, their stin…