144 citations · 444 across the 17 of their papers we have counts for
17 papers
Forecasting Conceptual Diffusion in Science: The Case of Quantum Computing
Thomas Maillart, Thibaut Chataing, David Dosu +3
Understanding and anticipating scientific change requires models that distinguish between endogenous consolidation and exogenous diffusion of scientific concepts. Using the quantum…
Explainable Forecasting of Scientific Breakthroughs from Concept Network Dynamics
Thomas Maillart, Thibaut Chataing, Ntorina Antoni +4
We introduce an explainable machine-learning approach that forecasts the structural precursors of scientific breakthroughs -- the emergence and intensification of links between res…
Building Digital Societies as Ecosystems: How Recognition and Repeat Relationships Sustain Cross-Community Work in Open Source
Lucia Gomez Tejeiro, Thibaut Chataing, Julian Jang-Jaccard +2
We measure cross-boundary collaboration in an open-source software (OSS) ecosystem by reconstructing the bipartite contributor-repository graph of 464 cybersecurity projects and 11…
Computational Diplomacy: How "hackathons for good" feed a participatory future for multilateralism in the digital age
Thomas Maillart, Lucia Gomez, Ewa Lombard +2
This article explores the role of hackathons for good in building a community of software and hardware developers focused on addressing global SDG challenges. We theorise this move…
TechRank
Anita Mezzetti, Loïc Maréchal, Dimitri Percia David +5
We introduce TechRank, a recursive algorithm based on a bi-partite graph with weighted nodes. We develop TechRank to link companies and technologies based on the method of reflecti…
Efficient Collective Action for Tackling Time-Critical Cybersecurity Threats
Sébastien Gillard, Dimitri Percia David, Alain Mermoud +1
The latency reduction between the discovery of vulnerabilities, the build-up and dissemination of cyber-attacks has put significant pressure on cybersecurity professionals. For tha…
TechRank: A Network-Centrality Approach for Informed Cybersecurity-Investment
Anita Mezzetti, Dimitri Percia David, Thomas Maillart +2
The cybersecurity technological landscape is a complex ecosystem in which entities -- such as companies and technologies -- influence each other in a non-trivial manner. Measuring…
Aristotle vs. Ringelmann: On Superlinear Production in Open Source Software
Thomas Maillart, Didier Sornette
Organizations exist because they provide additional production gains, in comparison to horizontal ways of allocating resources, such as markets, and the open source movement is dee…
Given Enough Eyeballs, All Bugs Are Shallow? Revisiting Eric Raymond with Bug Bounty Programs
Thomas Maillart, Mingyi Zhao, Jens Grossklags +1
Bug bounty programs offer a modern platform for organizations to crowdsource their software security and for security researchers to be fairly rewarded for the vulnerabilities they…
The Extreme Risk of Personal Data Breaches & The Erosion of Privacy
Spencer Wheatley, Thomas Maillart, Didier Sornette
Personal data breaches from organisations, enabling mass identity fraud, constitute an \emph{extreme risk}. This risk worsens daily as an ever-growing amount of personal data are s…
Using Prediction Markets to Incentivize and Measure Collective Knowledge Production
Thomas Maillart, Didier Sornette
We present a mechanism design, coupling an online collaboration software and a prediction market, which allows tracking down the very roots of individual incentives, actions and ho…
How Much is the Whole Really More than the Sum of its Parts? 1 + 1 = 2.5: Superlinear Productivity in Collective Group Actions
Didier Sornette, Thomas Maillart, Giacomo Ghezzi
In a variety of open source software projects, we document a superlinear growth of production () as a function of the number of active developers , with $β\simeq 4/3…
Exploring the limits of safety analysis in complex technological systems
D. Sornette, T. Maillart, W. Kroeger
From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such…
Hierarchy of Temporal Responses of Multivariate Self-Excited Epidemic Processes
A. Saichev, D. Sornette
We present the first exact analysis of some of the temporal properties of multivariate self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson processes, which constitute powerful representations…
Quantification of deviations from rationality with heavy-tails in human dynamics
Thomas Maillart, Didier Sornette, Stefan Frei +2
The dynamics of technological, economic and social phenomena is controlled by how humans organize their daily tasks in response to both endogenous and exogenous stimulations. Queue…
Empirical Tests of Zipf's law Mechanism In Open Source Linux Distribution
T. Maillart, D. Sornette, S. Spaeth +1
The evolution of open source software projects in Linux distributions offers a remarkable example of a growing complex self-organizing adaptive system, exhibiting Zipf's law over f…
Heavy-Tailed Distribution of Cyber-Risks
T. Maillart, D. Sornette
With the development of the Internet, new kinds of massive epidemics, distributed attacks, virtual conflicts and criminality have emerged. We present a study of some striking stati…