57 citations · 84 across the 20 of their papers we have counts for
14 papers · 1 filter
Systemic Methodological Dysfunction in Statistical Research for Clinical Decisions
Charles F. Manski
I critique a set of entrenched methodological conventions that collectively create systemic dysfunction in statistical research for clinical decisions. These include: (1) the preva…
Coping with Inductive Risk When Theories are Underdetermined: Decision Making with Partial Identification
Charles F. Manski
Controversy about the significance of underdetermination of theories persists in the philosophy and conduct of science. The issue has practical import when research is used to info…
Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification: Illustrated by Covariate Classification in Medical Risk Assessment
Atheendar S. Venkataramani, Charles F. Manski, John Mullahy
A common practice in evidence-based decision-making uses estimates of conditional probabilities P(y|x) obtained from research studies to predict outcomes y on the basis of observed…
The Subtlety of Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality
Charles F. Manski, Eytan Sheshinski
We study the subtlety of optimal paternalism when a utilitarian planner has the power to design a discrete choice set for a heterogeneous population with bounded rationality. We fi…
Statistical Decision Theory Respecting Stochastic Dominance
Charles F. Manski, Aleksey Tetenov
The statistical decision theory pioneered by Wald (1950) has used state-dependent mean loss (risk) to measure the performance of statistical decision functions across potential sam…
Using Limited Trial Evidence to Credibly Choose Treatment Dosage when Efficacy and Adverse Effects Weakly Increase with Dose
Charles F. Manski
In medical treatment and elsewhere, it has become standard to base treatment intensity (dosage) on evidence in randomized trials. Yet it has been rare to study how outcomes vary wi…
Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups
Sheyu Li, Valentyn Litvin, Charles F. Manski
Medical journals have adhered to a reporting practice that seriously limits the usefulness of published trial findings. Medical decision makers commonly observe many patient covari…
Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up
Charles F. Manski
Incomplete observability of data generates an identification problem. There is no panacea for missing data. What one can learn about a population parameter depends on the assumptio…
Identification and Statistical Decision Theory
Charles F. Manski
Econometricians have usefully separated study of estimation into identification and statistical components. Identification analysis, which assumes knowledge of the probability dist…
Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting
Stephen J. DeCanio, Charles F. Manski, Alan H. Sanstad
Integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for comparing climate policies that seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Policy comparisons have often been performed…
Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine
Charles F. Manski
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The s…
Misguided Use of Observed Covariates to Impute Missing Covariates in Conditional Prediction: A Shrinkage Problem
Charles F Manski, Michael Gmeiner, Anat Tamburc
Researchers regularly perform conditional prediction using imputed values of missing data. However, applications of imputation often lack a firm foundation in statistical theory. T…
Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing COVID-19 Drugs
Charles F. Manski, Aleksey Tetenov
As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, researchers are reporting findings of randomized trials comparing standard care with care augmented by experimental drugs. The trials have smal…
Statistical inference for statistical decisions
Charles F. Manski
The Wald development of statistical decision theory addresses decision making with sample data. Wald's concept of a statistical decision function (SDF) embraces all mappings of the…