8 papers
Exact phylodynamic likelihood via structured Markov genealogy processes
Aaron A. King, Qianying Lin, Edward L. Ionides
We show that each member of a broad class of Markovian population models induces a unique stochastic process on the space of genealogies. We construct this genealogy process and de…
Jagged AI in Scientific Peer Review: Evidence from POMP Data Analysis
Jin Wook Lee, William Szegda, Zhisheng Song +1
Despite their growing use in academic writing and statistical analysis, the performance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools in scientific peer review remains a largely unexplored…
Iterating marginalized Bayes maps for likelihood maximization with application to nonlinear panel models
Jesse Wheeler, Aaron J. Abkemeier, Edward L. Ionides
Complex dynamic systems can be investigated by fitting mechanistic stochastic dynamic models to time series data. In this context, commonly used Monte Carlo inference procedures fo…
Revisiting Inference for ARMA Models: Improved Fits and Superior Confidence Intervals
Jesse Wheeler, Edward L. Ionides
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable l…
Poisson Approximate Likelihood versus the block particle filter for a spatiotemporal measles model
Kunyang He, Yize Hao, Edward L. Ionides
Filtering algorithms for high-dimensional nonlinear non-Gaussian partially observed stochastic processes provide access to the likelihood function and hence enable likelihood-based…
Income, health, and spurious cointegration
José A. Tapia Granados, Edward L. Ionides
Data for many nations show a long-run increase, over many decades, of income, indexed by GDP per capita, and population health, indexed by mortality or life expectancy at birth (LE…