5 papers
Long Memory in Intrinsically Dynamic Factor Models
Qin Wen, Clifford M. Hurvich
We study the generalized dynamic factor model in a long-memory setting. Unlike most recent work, which assumes a finite-dimensional factor space and short memory, our framework all…
DistDF: Time-Series Forecasting Needs Joint-Distribution Wasserstein Alignment
Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Yuan Lu +7
Training time-series forecasting models requires aligning the conditional distribution of model forecasts with that of the label sequence. The standard direct forecast (DF) approac…
Deep Autocorrelation Modeling for Time-Series Forecasting: Progress and Prospects
Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Qingsong Wen +12
Autocorrelation is a defining characteristic of time-series data, where each observation is statistically dependent on its predecessors. In the context of deep time-series forecast…
Deep Time-series Forecasting Needs Kernelized Moment Balancing
Licheng Pan, Hao Wang, Haocheng Yang +7
Deep time-series forecasting can be formulated as a distribution balancing problem aimed at aligning the distribution of the forecasts and ground truths. According to Imbens' crite…
Quadratic Direct Forecast for Training Multi-Step Time-Series Forecast Models
Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Yuan Lu +7
The design of training objective is central to training time-series forecasting models. Existing training objectives such as mean squared error mostly treat each future step as an…