431 citations · 530 across the 10 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers
Sensitivity of the ECMWF seasonal forecast model to CO2 and anthropogenic aerosol forcings: Experimental design and impact on climate trends
Michael Mayer, Daniel J. Befort, Jacob Maddison +1
Detection and attribution studies typically rely on free running climate models with modified anthropogenic forcings, yet they fail to reproduce key observed decadal trends. Despit…
Improved rainfall forecasts in daily use over East Africa
Fenwick C. Cooper, Shruti Nath, Andrew T. T. McRae +21
Ensemble forecasting has proven to be a vital tool for predicting extreme, life-threatening or only partially predictable weather events. As well as providing probabilistic product…
The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts
Robert Doane-Solomon, Daniel Befort, Joanne Camp +2
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. W…
A Bayesian Approach to Atmospheric Circulation Regime Assignment
Swinda K. J. Falkena, Jana de Wiljes, Antje Weisheimer +1
The standard approach when studying atmospheric circulation regimes and their dynamics is to use a hard regime assignment, where each atmospheric state is assigned to the regime it…
Beyond skill scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case study of French month-ahead energy prediction
Joshua Dorrington, Isla Finney, Tim Palmer +1
We quantify the value of sub-seasonal forecasts for a real-world prediction problem: the forecasting of French month-ahead energy demand. Using surface temperature as a predictor,…
Revisiting the Identification of Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation Regimes in the Euro-Atlantic Sector
Swinda K. J. Falkena, Jana de Wiljes, Antje Weisheimer +1
Atmospheric circulation is often clustered in so-called circulation regimes, which are persistent and recurrent patterns. For the Euro-Atlantic sector in winter, most studies ident…