21 citations · 22 across the 4 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers
Calibrated Probability Forecast Sequences and Measure-Valued Martingales
Thomas Wilkinson, Christopher Ferro
We consider the calibration of probability forecasts. Several notions of calibration exist when the forecaster issues a single forecast for each of the observations that is to be p…
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms
Theodoros Economou, David B. Stephenson, Christopher A. T. Ferro
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-200…
Evaluating ensemble forecasts by the Ignorance score -- Correcting the finite-ensemble bias
Stefan Siegert, Christopher A. T. Ferro, David B. Stephenson
This study considers the application of the Ignorance Score (also known as the Logarithmic Score) in the context of ensemble verification. In particular, we consider the case where…
A Sliding Blocks Estimator for the Extremal Index
Christian Y. Robert, Johan Segers, Christopher A. T. Ferro
In extreme value statistics for stationary sequences, blocks estimators are usually constructed by using disjoint blocks because exceedances over high thresholds of different block…