12 papers
Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation
Dennis Frauen, Marie Brockschmidt, Konstantin Hess +10
Large language model (LLM) development is currently driven by large-scale empirical iteration over data mixtures, reward models, routing strategies, and evaluation pipelines. Here,…
Targeted Synthetic Control Method
Yuxin Wang, Dennis Frauen, Emil Javurek +3
The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated…
Debiased neural operators for estimating functionals
Konstantin Hess, Dennis Frauen, Niki Kilbertus +1
Neural operators are widely used to approximate solution maps of complex physical systems. In many applications, however, the goal is not to recover the full solution trajectory, b…
An Orthogonal Learner for Individualized Outcomes in Markov Decision Processes
Emil Javurek, Valentyn Melnychuk, Jonas Schweisthal +3
Predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making is central for optimizing therapeutic decisions in personalized medicine (e.g., which dosing sequence to…
Efficient and Sharp Off-Policy Learning under Unobserved Confounding
Konstantin Hess, Dennis Frauen, Valentyn Melnychuk +1
We develop a novel method for personalized off-policy learning in scenarios with unobserved confounding. Thereby, we address a key limitation of standard policy learning: standard…
IGC-Net for conditional average potential outcome estimation over time
Konstantin Hess, Dennis Frauen, Valentyn Melnychuk +1
Estimating potential outcomes for treatments over time based on observational data is important for personalized decision-making in medicine. However, many existing methods for thi…