8 citations · 10 across the 2 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers
physics.ao-ph2026
Estimating ensemble-mean anomaly correlations and the ratio of predictable components using an unbiased estimate of the predictable signal variance
Christopher David Roberts
The correlation () between ensemble mean forecasts and observations is a frequently-used metric of forecast quality in the weather and climate prediction communities. However, u…
physics.ao-ph2024★ 2 cited
Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts
Christopher David Roberts, Frederic Vitart
Ensemble forecasts can exhibit counterintuitive statistical properties such that the correlation between ensemble means and observations () exceeds the correlation between…
physics.ao-ph2024★ 8 cited
Unbiased calculation, evaluation, and calibration of ensemble forecast anomalies
Christopher D. Roberts, Martin Leutbecher
Long-range ensemble forecasts are typically verified as anomalies with respect to a lead-time dependent climatological mean to remove the influence of systematic biases. However, c…