2 papers
stat.ME2024
Forecasting Densities of Fatalities from State-based Conflicts using Observed Markov Models
David Randahl, Johan Vegelius
In this contribution to the VIEWS 2023 prediction challenge, we propose using an observed Markov model for making predictions of densities of fatalities from armed conflicts. The o…
stat.AP2024
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi +37
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated…