4 papers
Reservoir: A Large-Scale Simulated Dataset for Training and Evaluating Epidemiological Models
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno, Marisa Eisenberg
Large-scale, standardized datasets have driven many advances in AI-based scientific modeling, from protein structure prediction to natural language processing. Infectious disease e…
Prediction Markets Underperform Simple Baselines For Infectious Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno
Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) allow participants to bet on future events, producing real-time forecasts based on collective judgment. In domains such as elections a…
Mantis: A Foundation Model for Mechanistic Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno, Christopher Harding +3
Infectious disease forecasting in novel outbreaks or low-resource settings is hampered by the need for large disease and covariate data sets, bespoke training, and expert tuning, a…
Simulation as Supervision: Mechanistic Pretraining for Scientific Discovery
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno, Christopher Harding +1
Scientific modeling faces a tradeoff between the interpretability of mechanistic theory and the predictive power of machine learning. While existing hybrid approaches have made pro…