4 citations · 8 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers
Forecasting House Prices
Emanuel Kohlscheen
This article identifies the factors that drove house prices in 13 advanced countries over the past 35 years. It does so based on Breiman s (2001) random forest model. Shapley value…
Effects of carbon pricing and other climate policies on CO2 emissions
Emanuel Kohlscheen, Richhild Moessner, Elod Takats
We provide ex-post empirical analysis of the effects of climate policies on carbon dioxide emissions at the aggregate national level. Our results are based on a comprehensive datab…
The shape of business cycles: a cross-country analysis of Friedman s plucking theory
Emanuel Kohlscheen, Richhild Moessner, Daniel Rees
We test the international applicability of Friedman s famous plucking theory of the business cycle in 12 advanced economies between 1970 and 2021. We find that in countries where l…
Understanding the food component of inflation
Emanuel Kohlscheen
This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past 30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is, broader economic overheat…
Globalisation and the Decoupling of Inflation from Domestic Labour Costs
Emanuel Kohlscheen, Richhild Moessner
We provide novel systematic cross-country evidence that the link between domestic labour markets and CPI inflation has weakened considerably in advanced economies during recent dec…
Changing Electricity Markets: Quantifying the Price Effects of Greening the Energy Matrix
Emanuel Kohlscheen, Richhild Moessner
We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) wholesale electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that w…
What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?
Emanuel Kohlscheen
This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation ac…
Quantifying the Role of Interest Rates, the Dollar and Covid in Oil Prices
Emanuel Kohlscheen
This study analyses oil price movements through the lens of an agnostic random forest model, which is based on 1,000 regression trees. It shows that this highly disciplined, yet fl…